Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
