🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Profited $436K on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. One account, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity right before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," stated an industry expert. Several of other platform users also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on recently would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with participants able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."